AL Central Division Preview

The AL Central is arguably 2023’s most competitive division in all of baseball; it may also be MLB’s worst division. 

As of March 20th, DraftKings gives 3 AL Central teams odds of +250 or better to win the division (no other division has more than 2 such teams): the Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins, and Chicago White Sox. FanGraphs projects all 3 to finish within 80 to 84 wins. 

The lack of a true frontrunner at the top of the division means even the lowly Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers have some chance of being the 2023 AL Central champions. 

 

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers failed to show improvement in 2022 after splashy free agent acquisition Javier Báez and rookie Spencer Torkelson had lackluster starts to their Detroit careers. There’s still hope for their young talent in Torkelson and Riley Greene to break out this year. 

The good news for Detroit’s offense is the health of Austin Meadows. His 2022 season was derailed by a laundry list of ailments from COVID-19 to vertigo to achilles tendonitis. He will be ready to start the season, likely occupying a spot in the heart of the lineup. 

Miguel Cabrera may be occupying a spot in the lineup more than he deserves during his farewell tour. Regardless of the team’s record, he’ll keep ticket sales and television ratings up down the stretch. 

Detroit’s pitching is their greatest question mark, especially from a health perspective. 

Former top prospect Casey Mize may miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Tarik Skubal had a breakout 2022 campaign, but flexor tendon surgery has him on the 60-day IL heading into the start of the regular season. Detroit will turn to Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen, and Matthew Boyd to lead their rotation this year. 

For the Tigers, a successful 2023 season won’t depend on their record—instead, the development and health of their young (hopefully) franchise cornerstones are paramount. 

 

Kansas City Royals

Bobby Witt Jr. looks to build off his 4th place Rookie of the Year finish and lead the Royals to a more respectable record than last year’s 65-97. ZiPS is bullish on Witt, projecting him to finish over 1 fWAR better than last year (3.4 vs. 2.3). 

Salvador Perez was a monster in 2021, leading the majors in HRs and RBI. His follow-up campaign was extremely disappointing, seeing his offensive numbers take a plunge while his lackluster defensive metrics remained the same. As one of the few bright spots on this Kansas City offense, Perez will need to bounce back if the Royals are going to take a step forward. 

The Royals’ biggest surprise of 2022 was Vinnie Pasquatino, who led the team with a 137 wRC+ (albeit in just 298 plate appearances). The 25-year-old will be looking to prove that his season was not a mirage. 

Outside of Brady Singer, a trendy longshot Cy Young pick following his breakout 2022 campaign, the pitching staff leaves much to be desired. Zack Greinke is 39. Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough don’t offer much more upside despite being younger. 

Scott Barlow quietly had a nice season in relief with a 2.18 ERA. If Aroldis Chapman can return to form, the bullpen would have 2 nice pieces to work with (that could fetch a decent return at the deadline). 

 

Chicago White Sox

Raise your hand if you were wrong about the White Sox last year. Despite an elite season from Dylan Cease en route to a second-place Cy Young finish, the White Sox played .500 ball all season. Aside from a managerial shift that sent Tony La Russa packing and brought in Pedro Grifol, the team had a quiet offseason. 

The only major additions were Andrew Benintendi’s much-needed lefty bat and Mike Clevinger. The Sox lost face of the franchise Jose Abreu in free agency, which raises the question of whether this team actually improved or not in the offseason. 

Injuries were the team’s greatest foe in 2022. Nearly every key contributor not named Cease missed extended time due to injuries, and some were noticeably affected even while in the lineup. 

GM Rick Hahn and his front office took a conservative approach, hoping that health is the one thing keeping the White Sox from meeting the lofty aspirations they had entering last season. 

The rotation will be led by the fierce trio of Cease, Lucas Giolito, and Lance Lynn. The latter two struggled in 2022 after producing 4+ fWAR the year before. Even the back end of the rotation looks solid with Clevinger and flamethrower Michael Kopech. 

The bullpen appeared to be a strength before the news of Liam Hendriks’ battle with non-Hodgkins lymphoma. His leadership and pitching prowess will provide a spark to the clubhouse whenever he is able to return to the mound. 

Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, and Eloy Jimenez have led the way offensively for the past few years. It may be Andrew Vaughn, however, who is the biggest X-factor in the lineup. Vaughn, a defensive black hole who hits the ball hard, will need to reach another level at the plate if the Sox are going to exceed critics’ expectations. A position change from left field to first base should mitigate his defensive deficiencies. 

 

Minnesota Twins

The Carlos Correa saga culminated with the Twins retaining their superstar shortstop. With how tight the divisional race should be, Correa may be just enough to get Minnesota back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020. 

While the White Sox are hoping for teamwide injury luck, Twins fans are praying for just one player to stay healthy: Byron Buxton. One of the most electrifying and dominant players in the game, he just can’t stay healthy (he’s only appeared in more than 100 games once in his career). 

Jorge Polanco is another position player to keep an eye on. If he can return to his 2021 form, the Twins lineup will be fierce. 

Finally, a Twins 2023 season preview is incomplete without a mention of Joey Gallo. He was not good last year, but a shift-free environment may propel him to a remarkable year.  

The Twins lineup looks different with the loss of 2022 AL batting champion Luis Arráez in a trade with Miami. In return, Minnesota bolstered their rotation by acquiring Pablo López. The rotation doesn’t appear to have a bona fide ace, but the addition of Lopez gives Minnesota one of MLB’s deepest rotations. Rounding out the rotation are Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle. Each of these options has a high floor and should provide reliability. One may have to emerge as a star if the Twins are going to hold off the White Sox and Guardians for AL central supremacy, however. 

 

Cleveland Guardians

Few expected Cleveland to make the postseason in 2022. Led by the emergence of Andrés Giménez, Steven Kwan, and Triston McKenzie, the Guardians managed to win 92 games and the AL Central. The pressure is on those 3 players to repeat their performances this year. 

There’s less pressure on José Ramírez, who had his third consecutive top-6 MVP finish last year. Ramirez is one of the game’s foremost stars and should maintain that status comfortably in 2023. 

Cleveland’s biggest offseason move was bringing in Josh Bell, a strong bat-first presence (albeit streaky) that should provide some protection behind Ramirez in the lineup. 

Shane Bieber will continue to act as the ace of the rotation. Bieber pitched 200 innings for the second time in his career en route to 4.9 fWAR in 2022. Behind him are McKenzie and Cal Quantrill, who had a solid 3.38 ERA season for Cleveland last year. 

The Guardians are considered AL Central favorites for a reason. Their star power with Ramírez is unmatched and they possess perhaps the best pitcher in the division with Bieber. Cleveland just needs last season’s young breakout stars to keep it up, and the 2023 AL Central crown will be theirs.