Outperforming Ohtani

10/25/24 (Orion’s Record 3-6))

Tough break last week but everything is trending in the right direction. I was right about Buehler having a bounce back start but I didn’t expect him to do as well as he did. He shut down the Mets, killing the Mets moneyline leg. Teoscar and Vientos were both only 1 hit run or RBI away from covering. Gotta stay optimistic with how close we’re getting. Finally time for the world series. It’s not the matchup I was personally hoping for but I am always a fan of good baseball. Let’s look at some picks. 

 

Pick: Juan Soto to record a hit (-210)

Not only has Soto been swinging a hot bat this postseason hitting .333 with a 1.106 OPS, but he has the favorable matchup against the righty Flaherty. In 2024 Soto hit .293 against right handed pitchers a whole 15 points better than his numbers against lefties. With these types of numbers and Sotos past world series experience, recording a hit tonight seems like a sure thing.  

Pick: Garret Cole Over 4.5 K’s (-136)

Cole is not a stranger to the fall classic having started two world series games in the past. He has plenty of experience to call upon in the big moments and knows how important giving his team a quality start is in this situation. The last time he faced the Dodgers was in 2023 and he looked great against them going 6 innings and striking out 5. With the adrenaline rush of starting a world series game as well as the incentive to set the tone for a strong series against the Dodgers I think Cole is going to come out firing. Cole has always been a power pitcher attacking the zone, something I don’t see him straying away from here. With the stuff to challenge any hitter in the Dodgers lineup I see Cole racking up some K’s tonight. 

Pick: Yankees moneyline (+108)

I was surprised to see the Yankees come in as betting underdogs tonight especially with Garret Cole on the hill. I don’t feel like home field advantage is enough to make the Dodgers the favorite as the Yankees played better on the road (50-31) than at home (44-37) this year. Between that, Aaron Judge showing life at the plate and Stanton’s unreal playoff numbers (.294/.385/1.179) I think the Yankees have a great shot to take the game tonight.  

Pick: Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases (-140)

I don’t have too much to say for this one, the blog is named after the man. Gotta believe he’ll deliver for us. 

Parlay Odds: (+730) Bet $10 to win $73.09

 

10/16/24 (Orion’s Record 2-3)

Well I absolutely nailed the Padres Dodgers game but the Mets made me eat my words. Manaea had a fantastic outing. I thought I could still scrape past the under on his total K’s but he managed to strike out the top of the order to end his outing. Very disappointing. I was right about Trea Turner playing better but he got robbed of what would have been his second total base by Lindor. Overall I just shouldn’t have bet against Grimace in the postseason. Lesson learned. Only one game on the block today and it looks like it’s going to be a good one between the Mets and Dodgers. Here are my picks for today. 

 

Pick: Mets moneyline (-104)

The Mets have a great opportunity to steal a game tonight with this favorable pitching matchup. Buehler has not been at his best giving up 6 ER last start to the Padres. I feel like his confidence is shaken and he certainly hasn’t been the same pitcher since coming back from injury. Additionally, the Mets offense has feasted off opponents bullpens this postseason. A potentially weak starter with good numbers against the bullpen is always a recipe for success. 

Pick: Mark Vientos 2+ Hits Runs and RBI’s (-115)

Vientos is having an insane playoff run. Only being overshadowed by Tatis, Vientos has three home runs, 11 RBI’s and an 1.086 OPS through his first 9 playoff games. Most notably he has come through in the clutch, a trend I expect to continue as the Mets fight for the series lead tonight. With how hot he has been and all the different ways he has contributed to the Mets offense I’m feeling good about his ability to cover this leg. 

Pick: Walker Buehler over 3.5 K’s (-142)

I know I faded Buehler in my rationale for taking the Mets moneyline, but I feel like he has been pitching poorly to such an extreme that his K line has been lowered to an opportune level. I don’t think Buehler has completely fallen off, he is certainly struggling, but I feel like he is due for a slight bounce back night. Not dominating, but not getting completely knocked around and hopefully throwing up some K’s as well. 

Pick: Teoscar Hernandez 2+ Hits Runs and RBI’s (-105)

Hernandez is currently leading the Dodgers in playoff RBI’s and has a solid 0.900 playoff OPS to boot. With the ability of the three players hitting in front of him (Ohtani, Mookie and Freeman) to get on base and give him a chance at an RBI, I feel good about his ability to cash in on those opportunities tonight and rack up some RBI’s and hits as well. 

Parlay Odds: (+1599) Bet $10 to win $178

 

10/8/24 (Orion's record 0-0)

Welcome to the first edition of Outperforming Ohtani. A blog in which I will be posting my educated (mostly) sports betting picks. I’m Orion and my favorite team is the Mariners but I know enough about them to usually be betting against them or at least their K line. I’m looking forward to some quality playoff baseball, lots of exciting games coming up to bet on. Here are my picks for today. 

 

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+152)

For my first pick I have the Phillies covering the spread. I’m taking the Phillies in tonight's pitching matchup. I like Nola over Manaea. Phillie has the better run differential by a margin of 32 and on average allow less runs per game than the mets. With the spread only being at 1.5 I like it more than the moneyline because of the positive odds. 

Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ Total Bases (-120)

For my second pick I have Tatis with 2+ total bases. Tatis has been on fire in the postseason putting up some ridiculous numbers hitting .643 with a 2.151 OPS. I don’t see him cooling off anytime soon, especially after the high emotion game on Sunday. He has proven himself to be consistently incredible in the postseason hitting .444/.556/.972 lifetime which ranks him first in AVG, OPS, OBP and SLG among all active players with at least 10 postseason games played. With these historic numbers it’s easy to see him putting up 2+ total bases against a struggling Walker Buehler tonight. 

Pick: Sean Manaea Under 5.5 K’s (-118)

For my third pick I have Sean Manaea Under his K line. Lifetime Manaea’s postseason numbers are not pretty, but I acknowledge that he has been much better thus far in 2024 pitching to a 3.60 ERA compared to his 10.66 career postseason ERA. Even with the improvements to his ERA Manaea has never struck out more than 5 batters in the postseason and I don’t see that changing against the Phillies. In 2024 Manaea averaged 5.75 K’s per game just below the over of 6. The Phillies struck out an average of 8.47 times per game this season placing them well under 6 K’s if Manaea is able to go half the distance. This combined with the fact that I believe the Phillies will knock him out of the game early give me confidence in taking the under for his K line. 

Pick: Trea Turner 2+ Total Bases (+105)

For my fourth pick I have Trea Turner with 2+ total bases. Turner has a few hits already this series but has been fairly quiet being limited to just two singles. These are by no means terrible numbers over two games but this isn’t the superstar impact you would expect from your franchise shortstop. I feel like this game will be a breakout for Turner in this series and maybe even for the rest of the Phillies playoff run. Turner has shown himself to be a streaky hitter in the past but when he’s on he is on. Just take a look at his Linsanity run during the WBC then his slump to start the season. All it takes is one game to break out and I like the matchup he has against Manaea tonight.  Turner has a favorable split against the lefty Manaea hitting 11 AVG points better against lefties (.292 compared to .303) and slugging 81 points better (.445 compared to.526). Additionally, Turner is 5-16 with a home run and 2 RBI’s off Manaea lifetime. Hopefully he can continue that success and rack up some bases tonight.

Pick: Dodgers vs Padres Over 7.5 Total Runs (-115)

For my fifth pick I have the over on the run total for the Dodgers vs Padres game. So far both games of this series have gone well over 8 runs, a trend I see continuing as these high powered offenses face off for the third time. Buehler has been on a slide this season not pitching to the quality we have seen from him in the past, giving me hope the Padres can get some offense going early off him. Although Michael King has been very solid I can’t see him completely shutting down LA’s star studded offense. Runs on both sides are always great for the over on total runs. 

Parlay odds: (+1746) Bet 10$ to win $174.62

If you’re really feeling all these picks you could throw them together on a parlay with some pretty solid odds compared to how confident I am in these picks. Good luck to everyone betting this week. Time to go enjoy some playoff baseball.