Trend or Pretend? Josh Bell: A Gold Nugget in the Steel City

Last August, I had a chance to watch the Pirates twice during a road trip. PNC Park is a beautiful stadium, and the team sported a quality pitching staff, at the time headed by Jameson Taillon and the newly acquired Chris Archer. However, offense was (and remains today) the club’s major deficiency. On my night at PNC, August 20th, the Pirates were shut out by a 20-year old (Bryse Wilson) making his MLB debut, extending what would become a seven-game stretch in which they scored just seven runs.

Six months later, and still the Pirates’ offensive woes have yet to be resolved. While Austin Meadows, whom they shipped away in the Archer deal last July, is hitting .351 with 6 homers in Tampa Bay this season, only Melky Cabrera boasts an average north of .300 for the Bucs in 2019. To make matters worse, Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte, former All-Stars and two of the team’s top hitters, are currently sidelined by injuries. Yet, the Bucs are hanging around at 12-11 in a very competitive NL Central—how have they survived?

Once a top prospect, Josh Bell is finally breaking out before our eyes. He’s quietly slashing .284/.368/.593 with 5 homers in a lineup that offers him no viable protection. Furthermore, while he has always shown strong plate discipline (11.88% BB prior to 2019), the early power is an encouraging sign for a first baseman who slugged just .411 with 12 HR last season.

“Ok,” you may say, “Bell is starting off 2019 hot, but not Yelich-hot. Why does this deserve a column?” And you may have a reasonable qualm. After all, it has only been 25 or so games.

But you don’t have a reasonable qualm. Because Josh Bell is destroying baseballs.

While Bell’s launch angle has remained at his career average this season (~9 degrees), his average exit velocity has jumped from 87.7 in 2017 to 90.0 in 2018 to 94.1 in 2019! That’s good for the 97th percentile in baseball! Furthermore, such an upward trajectory for a player of his age (nearly 26) shows that he’s bulking up and driving the baseball more as he heads into his prime years.

Is Josh Bell’s breakout a trend or pretend? It’s a trend. Prorating his performance to date to 600 plate appearances, Bell is on pace for 33 homers. With the added EV and the imminent returns of viable hitters such as Marte and Dickerson, Bell will have no problem hitting 30+ bombs while pushing a .300 AVG. Oh, and by the way, PNC is a terrible hitters’ park. Only Andrew McCutchen (once) and Pedro Alvarez (twice) have 30 homers with the Pirates since 2006. Bell will be next.