Way Too Early Awards: Who’s Hoisting Hardware In October?
With just under a month of the season finished, we are starting to get a clearer picture of how the 2019 MLB season will take shape. Many of the game’s superstars have launched into yet another All-Star campaign, while some have stumbled out of the gate. With that being said, the season is young, so this edition of Way-Too-Early Awards combines plenty of names that routinely sit at the top of these lists along with some newcomers off to hot starts. Let’s take a look.
Most Valuable Player, American League
Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Is there anything new here? After losing the 2018 AL MVP award to Mookie Betts, Mike Trout has kicked off his 2019 campaign reminding us all that he is very much still the best player in baseball. The 2x MVP has hit .333 while pacing the league with an ungodly 2.22 BB:K ratio vaulting him to the top of the American League in OBP and OPS. One of the top defensive players in the game and a shining spot in a weak Angels lineup, the rest of the AL better expect to hit well over .300 with 30+ home runs if they hope to dethrone the King yet again.
Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
Speaking of dethroning the King, let’s focus on the one guy who actually pulled off the feat last season. Betts took the MLB by storm, catapulting into superstar status to the tune of a .346 average with 32 home runs. Unlike last season’s blistering start, the start of 2019 has not treated Betts as kindly. His fly ball rate is down to levels more similar to his 2017 season, and his BABIP has followed suit down from .368 last season to .254 this April. Betts was bound to regress a bit, but here’s to hoping he’s able to regain some of his 2018 form. Mind you, his 2017 season still netted him an all-star nod, so plan on hearing the name Mookie Betts for the foreseeable future.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros
Bregman has wanted the spotlight ever since he entered the league, and he has followed up his breakout season last year with a strong start. Everything seems to be going according to plan for Bregman and the Astros, who still seem well on their way to another 100-win season. Expect Bregman to put up another season hovering around .300 and 30 home runs while putting up some strong defensive numbers as well. It might take one or two hot stretches to put him over the top and take the award.
Honorable Mentions: Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics; Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
Most Valuable Player, National League
Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Yelich clinched the NL MVP with a second half that saw him hit .367 with 25 home runs. Picked by many to regress back towards his career averages, Yelich has instead picked up where he left off. Hitting .337 with 13 home runs and 31 RBIs through the first four weeks, Yelich is threatening some records held for stats in the month of April. He has increased his fly ball rate and pull rate so far this season, and he seems poised to break the career highs he set last year.
Cody Bellinger, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Many expected Bellinger to piggyback off his Rookie of the Year 2017 season and leap into the MVP conversation last year. He didn’t make the jump many were expecting, but it appears we may now have two perennial MVP candidates in LA. Not far behind Yelich with 11 bombs, Bellinger’s remarkable .424 average is made even more outlandish by the .397 BABIP he has (keep in mind that BABIP discounts home runs as balls in play). His K rate has been halved from 24% to 12%, a trend that traditionally holds throughout the season and has led to his .500 OBP through the first month.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
Goldschmidt got off to a rough start in the 2018 season before turning it around over the summer to finish off a .290/33/83 season. So far this year, he has avoided the early season slump that likely prevented him from being a frontrunner for NL MVP last year. He is however currently striking out at about a 28% clip, continuing a several-year uptick in that statistic corresponding to a several year decrease in his walk rate. He’ll need to be a bit more selective with his pitches if he hopes to remain competitive in the MVP discussion.
Honorable Mentions: Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies; Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals
CY Young, American League
Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays
After remaining atop the Rays farm system for several years, Snell finally made the jump to the bigs in 2018 with his first full season on the major league roster. Snell met the high expectations held for a prospect of his caliber and more, winning the 2018 Cy Young award with 21 wins and a 1.89 ERA. So far in 2019, Snell has headed a Tampa Bay rotation leading the majors in ERA, leading the team to a surprising several game lead in the hyper-competitive AL East. His K:BB ratio has taken a major jump, and his FIP remains even lower than it was a season ago. He seems poised to put up another Cy Young winning season, especially if the Rays are still sitting atop the division come October.
James Paxton, New York Yankees
When the Yankees traded stud pitching prospect Justus Sheffield for Paxton over the offseason, they finally added the overpowering lefty arm their rotation had been needing. After an injury to Severino left the Yankees rotation without an ace, Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka have filled into a nice 1-2 punch at the front of the rotation. Paxton will be getting the type of run support he didn’t get in Seattle, and if he is able to keep his K rate up and drop his ERA down below 3.00, he could make a strong case for the Cy Young with 20+ wins atop the rotation of a 100-win team. If he and Snell keep pitching the way they are, keep an eye on what should end up an intriguing race for the AL East crown.
Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
Taking his teammate Corey Kluber’s usual spot on the list, Trevor Bauer has gotten off to a much stronger start than his perennially-contending teammate. After finishing 6th in AL Cy Young voting last year, Bauer comes to the end of April with a 2.20 ERA and will take over ace status for the Indians if Kluber continues to falter. If he can keep his BABIP down below .250, he should be able to make the small leap he needs to move up from 6th towards the top of the Cy Young voting.
Honorable Mentions: Justin Verlander, Houston Astros; Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays
CY Young, National League
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
The 3x Cy Young winner dropped the award to Jacob Degrom and his superhuman season in 2018 after taking the honor the previous two seasons. He’s gotten off to a bit of a rocky start in 2019, going 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA through the first month. I haven’t seen anything to worry about so far though. His FIP is lower than it was in any of the full seasons of his career, and his ERA has surely been inflated by a .395 BABIP. Expect plenty of normalization from those numbers down towards his typical dominant self. Still the National League leader in WAR amongst pitchers through the first month, the future Hall-of-Famer could become just the 5th pitcher ever to take home baseball’s top pitching award four times.
Jacob Degrom, New York Mets
The 2018 NL Cy Young winner seems likely to survive an injury scare when he complained of “barking” in his elbow, and if we are to believe that is over and done with, a healthy Degrom deserves a spot on this list after what he did last year. Of some concern, Degrom has given up five home runs already this year after giving up only ten all of last season. People are barrelling him up almost twice as often as last year, and with his fly ball rate also rising, we could see a sharp increase in his pitches leaving the yard. Degrom’s still leading the league in missing barrels altogether, with a 14.73 K/9, which should indicate a decline in the hard-hit balls that have hurt him through his first couple starts.
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds
A year after youngster Aaron Nola came onto the scene to challenge the top pitchers in the NL, Luis Castillo seems to be the next pitcher looking to make the jump into the conversation for best in the NL. Plain-and-simple, Castillo has been the best pitcher in the NL through the first month, going 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 30.2 innings. With an xFIP of 3.28, don’t count on that ERA remaining below 2.00, but if he can keep eating innings and striking out batters at a high rate, he could be a shining spot on a lackluster Reds team.
Honorable Mentions: Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals; Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
Rookie of the Year, American League
Vlad Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
The countdown to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s debut has been underway for a while now, and it seems like we may soon finally get what we’ve all been waiting for. Guerrero has spent the last few years absolutely tearing up every level of the minor leagues. While he will fall behind the Rookie of the Year race with each day he spends in the minors, he should more than makeup for it by putting on a show once he gets to the majors. In fact, don’t be surprised to not only see Vlad Jr. atop Rookie of the Year ballots but also on some MVP ballots come October. Yes, he can be that good. Give the people what they want, Toronto.
Daniel Vogelbach, Seattle Mariners
The big, powerful lefty has become a centerpiece for the Mariners’ surprisingly stout lineup. Leading the majors in home runs, Vogelbach and Seattle have been mashing the ball at a historic pace. With an OPS of 1.287 through the first month, Vogelbach has mashed his way to the league lead for WAR amongst rookies. His lack of defense could get in his way, but he’s been getting the ball in the air and hitting them hard. The longer he can stay hot before Vlad Guerrero Jr. gets the call-up, the more breathing room he can earn himself in the Rookie of the Year race.
Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
This pick is certainly one more influenced by preseason rankings than production this season, but I feel confident sticking to it. After hitting about .335 with 22 home runs across Double and Triple-A last season, Jimenez had high expectations coming into this season. He has disappointed so far, hitting just .231 with 3 home runs so far. While the rookies who get off to hot starts have taken up most of the talking points so far, it is, in fact, normal to struggle a bit when making the leap to the big leagues. Jimenez should be just fine, as I expect his power such as his ISO .141 to rise closer to the mid .200s he has shown in the minors and should put up an altogether solid rookie season.
Honorable Mentions: Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners; Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
Rookie of the Year, National League
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Many thought that Alonso would begin the year in Triple-A, but the Mets surprised by giving him the nod as the starting first baseman on the big league roster. Alonso, despite not getting the beginning of year headlines that Guerrero, Tatis, or Robles got, has been arguably the best rookie in baseball. After leading the minors in home runs last year, Alonso has shown that his power translates to the bigs, leading NL rookies with eight round-trippers. Playing for a Mets team looking to make some noise in a crowded NL East, Alonso’s production out of the two-hole will need to remain high if they hope to rise to the top of the pack.
Victor Robles, Washington Nationals
One year after Juan Soto’s breakout rookie season saw him fall just short of the NL Rookie of the Year, Robles is looking for his own standout year. Keep in mind that it was Robles, not Soto, who has been the Nats top prospect for years now, and that an injury to Robles was the only reason Soto even got called up to the Majors last year. His stats so far this season look similar to his limited time on the roster last season, as he’s shaping up to hit around .280 with 15-20 homers. Some uncharacteristic bad defense so far this year should even out, and Robles should be the five-tool stud he’s expected to be.
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Tatis made the big-league roster at the onset of the season, giving the Padres an exciting pairing on the left side of the infield with Manny Machado. He’s made the quick adjustment to big-league pitching, making hard contact on over half of his balls in play. Tatis brings strong defense and some speed on the basepaths, and I’d expect him and Robles to put up some similar numbers this season. He is the final piece of what should be an incredibly intriguing three-man race between some of the MLB’s future superstar talent.
Honorable Mentions: Chris Paddack, San Diego Padres; Alex Verdugo, Los Angeles Dodgers